Christmas 1999 reading the millennium edition I had an Epiphany: in the Article “Road to Riches” some data of Angus Maddison where summarised in a graph, showing the increase of productivity of the West.
When I saw the graph, I became aware that the curve had to flatten. And so I did prepare myself for the eventuality.
Since 2006, the investments started to pay off: meanwhile the others struggled, my business thrived and eventually tripled, in a market that was decreasing if not collapsing, like in real estate (which is more then half of my business).
Fundamentally the article of the Economist had made obvious to me, what still is unacceptable for the large majority of people: that the past century was exceptional and eventually unique in its multiplication of wealth, and knowledge. It is no coincidence, so, that last week, I read an article by Bagehot (yes! Again in the Economist), that was summarising my thoughts: The nightmare scenario.
I am not sure to have a solution. Possibly there is no solution, other then to reconsider reality starting from new theories (Einstein).
I am not even sure to have understood entirely the situation of the western world, an obsolete definition, because there are many eastern and southern nations that have become rich, democratic and open. A better denomination is “OECD Countries” or simply “OECD”, in order to refer to the 34 nations that are currently members of Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development):
But I think that there are some people that have started to try to understand the facts underlying our current predicament. Too many of them are shying away from speaking out.
And there are too many that are shouting and have nothing to say, apart from blaming others for the unsolved problems (the government, the opposition, the bankers, the unions, … the usual suspects!).
This new Blog of mine has the ambition to ask tough questions and to collect the opinions of those who care to discover the path to a sustainable future for us (the OECD people).
I believe we will need some substantial changes in our rules and organisations.
As a lawyer, my ambition is to understand what are the rules that provide justice and peace for the next century. Good rules last for a long time: the “Ius Commune” of the ancient Romans lasted for about 1500 years after the end of the Roman Empire.
I believe many of our current laws, will not last for a decade.
What will come next ?